I’ve just posted the past five months of home sales on my specialty site: ClintonJustSold.com  The link opens in a new window a gallery of these 97 sold and closed homes, or click the image below.

Click above to visit ClintonJustSold.com

What a wild couple of months!  Running along the precipace of another Great Depression and finishing with a historic presidency.  Will it be peaches and cream?  No.  It’s still a long way back.  But if you’re a home buyer, this could be the best time to buy a house.  Thanks to all the financial crisis commotion, sales were way down last month.  Only these 60 Hunterdon homes went under contract in October.  (Monthly home sales averaged 110 in the past year; December of 2007 saw 65 home sales!)

So even with fewer listings on the market, with sales sliced almost in half, the ratio of active listings to contracts signed last month shot up to a post-9/11 high of 22 months supply of homes, as graphed below. 

Fallout from the Wall Street meltdown landed on a strong buyer’s market; inventory was already high relative to the number of buyers.  From there it went higher.  Here’s the Inventory index over the past few years:

What does this mean as we head into the month of Thanksgiving and Christmas?   It’s a great time to be a home buyer.  The selection is high and buyers are calling the shots.  If you’re a home seller, there’s only one way to be among the 60+ homes (out of over a thousand listings) that are sold in November and December this year.  Take a good long look at your competition and beat them by five or ten thousand. 

Ok, home sellers, why not wait?  After all, there will be more buyers in the Spring of 2009  and spring is generally the best home selling season, so it’ll be a lot easier, perhaps even a faster, sale.  That’s true, but it will also be a lower priced sale.  Prices won’t stop going down until the monthly inventory index (absorption rate) reaches 4-5 months.  

That’s at least a year away.  Meanwhile, if Hunterdon homes continue to lose 8-10 percent a year, that’ll be about 5,000 on every $100,000 by spring (or a $22,600 decline in value on the average Hunterdon home, worth $452,000 today).  That’s enough to make your move far less unattractive in April/May 2009 than it would be right now.  

First, get the facts.  I’m happy to consult with you on your best course of action based on hard data I collect on every Hunterdon town and the work of independent real estate appraiser Jeffrey Otteau.  Please click here to schedule a short no-pressure consultation on your home’s value and how to prepare for marketing it. 

Or, if you’d rather, just give me a call at (908) 303-8130 or email

Don Sherblom, Personal Service, Professional Results!
        (908) 303-8130
RE/MAX Town & Country
44 Leigh Street
Clinton, NJ 08809

Click here to search the web - Fast Local Search!

Again last year, RE/MAX sold more New Jersey homes than any other real estate company!

Exceptionally successful investor Warren Buffet, a man menitoned approvingly by both candidates in the second debate, (he’s endorsed Barak Obama) has been buying stock - right now - as the market goes down.  (True he’s an imperfect everyman, but so is “Joe the Plumber” and “Bob the Builder.”) 

The fact that the stock market goes down when new home building ’starts’ are down shows how irrational and volatile the stock market is right now.  (Fewer starts means an easing of the too-high inventory and a quicker recovery of that segment of the homes market; it’s good news, not bad.) 

Warren Buffet editorialized, “I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now.  What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.”

That caught my eye, because although he’s talking about the stock market, which is a lot more volatile than the housing market, the same principle applies.  When the homes market reaches bottom, nobody will know we’ve reached bottom until months later.  It’ll only be after about six months of gradully improved inventory, numbers of home sales, and level prices that in retrospect we’ll see when the bottom happened. 

The best time to buy is just before the market hits bottom.  Lots of time to make an informed decision and get the house you want.  Make an offer, especially if the house is overpriced, that’s how you become the only buyer on the market to discover the sellers’ bottom line.  

You’ll get a better deal when you don’t compete with other buyers, so don’t wait for an inevitable price reduction, get your personal price on your schedule, a price available only to an interested buyer. 

Buy early, buy low, buy now.

Best place to search local homes online? www.HunterdonHomes.com  

All homes, fast local seaches with larger pictures and no time out for ads.  -

Don Sherblom   (908) 303-8130   contact Don

New Face of the US Dollar This Week

I remember as a tourist on Wall Street in late 1987 I saw a lot of Don’t Panic buttons worn on labels.  Don’t think those buttons are worn today, because this time we were told to panic!   During the past two weeks, most of us didn’t need to be told - we were already eyeing the exits.  It’s not the sky but something really big is not staying aloft. 

The sudden end of this under-regulated, overly-profitable fiasco-making party has already had an effect on real estate in Hunterdon County, slowing the number of homes placed under contract, if only slightly last month.  Reduced sales, not an

increase in the number of listings, pushed the inventory higher, but only to about the same level as two years ago. 

The local homes market will probably rebound slightly over the next couple of months, if the bailout is approvedby the House.  It depends on how much credit is released and, importantly, how much home buyers are reassured by any action taken to relieve our huge economic and credit problem.  As of right now, there are no measurable effects in the Hunterdon Homes Market of the past two weeks’ events.  

A resolution to the credit crunch will not move us out of the strong buyers’ market but it might stimulate some buyer activity.  Any one holding out for the homes market to reach bottom is postponing life changes.  At some point, it doesn’t make sense to wait any longer.  Resolution of this recent crisis may be the tipping point for some buyers. 

The autumn, usually the second best home selling season, may have been sidetracked by this recent crisis (part of a long stream of bad news) or it might return to normal if this bailout gives a psychological lift. 

In short, there may be a two-month window of resonable home sales, at prices above where they’ll likely be in the spring, since some buyers are getting tired of circling around and may decide this is the time to come in for a landing.

Call Don Sherblom for complete information (908) 303-8130 on the local Hunterdon Homes market.  Find out why the RE/MAX system has grown to be the world’s largest and how we can sell your home, even in a challenging market, just as I have so many homes in the past few months!  (908) 303-8130

WOW!  What a Week!  A real cliffhanger! But it looks like we won’t slide over the edge, now that we’ve swapped unfettered markets for socialism.   Who says you can’t teach an old dogma new tricks?

I look forward to working with Congress to pass necessary legislation to remove these troubled assets from our financial system. When we get through this difficult period, which we will, our next task must be to improve the financial regulatory structure so that these past excesses do not recur. (September 19th, Treasury Secretary Paulson)

Reaction from the National Association of Realtors’ Chief Economist, click here.

Next week we’ll see.  Today a few notes on home prices - which is at the root of the national economic problems  This graph conveys the dramatic shift in prices in 20 metro areas.

Lower home prices are an underlying cause of the current financial mess (and lax regulation) but also a key part of the solution.  A return to job growth, affordable and available credit and affordable homes are the three key elements to bringing the housing market back into balance .

In Hunterdon County, things have never been as bad as the much of the rest of New Jersey, never mind other parts of the country.  Here’s what average prices have looked like in Hunterdon (and in one township) since 2001:

Average Clinton Township & Hunterdon Home Prices 2001-2008

Over the past seven years, prices rose pretty dramatically then dropped.  We’re now at or below average 2005 prices but that’s partly a reflection of larger lot sizes leading to larger homes at higher prices, which off-set overall lower prices.

A  comparison of the same house or neighborhood from year to year would show a steeper decline in home prices.  Looking at similar homes in Clinton Township, which I know best, prices in most neighborhoods have returned to the levels of about 2003, 2004.

The downward trend in prices continues, but the trend line is not as steep.  If the financial sector can resolve the bad mortgage debt problem, then late 2008 early 2009 will probably be when real estate prices hit bottom.

OK, so what would your Hunterdon home sell for in today’s market and tomorrow’s?  What can we do to make it sell at its best price?  Give me a call for a free consulation.

(908) 303-8130 of email me don(at)clintonrealestate.com

Don Sherblom
RE/MAX Town & Country
44 Leigh Street
Clinton, NJ 08809

Taking the pulse of home sales in Hunterdon County, New Jersey

The fall is generally the second best time to sell a house.  After Labor Day, suddenly people get serious about moving on with their lives.  This release of pent-up demand and increase in the number of buyers is good news for home sellers.

Of course, it’s still a strong buyers market, demand is still soft and prices continue to slide downward.  But if you’re thinking of selling, you should note that sales generally reduce the inventory in early fall, September and October, before it moves up again at the end of the year.

[Inventory Index = Number of months to sell every home on Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s why the New Jersey Association of Realtors says buying a home now is good move.

• A recent Reuters/Zogby poll concluded that a majority of Americans think now is a good time to buy a home. A survey of 1,049 likely voters found that 53.8 percent of participants believe now is a good buying opportunity.
  Source: The Reuters/Zogby Index

• According to the Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances, the average homeowner has a net worth of $184,400 while the average renter has a net worth of $4,000.
  Source: Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances

• Interest rates are very low compared to years past, Read the rest of this entry »

For almost three years the local homes market has been a strong buyers’ market and now it seems the tide may be shifting somewhat.  Two facts reveal this change:

One is the number of multiple offers on the few homes that are priced exactly right.  That didn’t happen even in the 2008 spring market.

Another is the decline in the number of homes available for sale compared to the number sold in the past month - the Hunterdon Homes Inventory Index. 

<– This graph showing the past years’ Inventory Index - the number of months required to sell every home on the market - shows this improvement compared to July ‘07 and July ‘06. 

The second graph presents a long view; the past seven years.   Read the rest of this entry »

    What kind of buyer’s market has multiple offers?  It’s just not fair.  Most homes just sit there and wait while the market softens.  Others not only go under contract, but have multiple potential buyers.

     If you’re thinking those lucky few are underpriced, you’re thinking what the buyers are thinking. You’re right that fear of losing a deal gets buyers to jump in.  You can shout ‘come on, the waters warm’ but it takes incentives for them to dive in. 

But once they’re wet, committed to a house, their attitude changes.  Getting them wet.  That’s the challenge in today’s market.  I wonder if this means buyers are starting to recognize value?  Probably some.  Anyway that’s just the way it is right now, with buyers holding out for a deal even though they’re eager to buy. 

The past seven year’s inventory index is graphed above.  The past two years is graphed below.  As you can see, this month’s index of available homes is about where it was in June last year. 

The index, (number of available homes divided by number placed under contract last month) shows how many months it would take to sell every home on the market at the current pace of home sales.

The index is many months higher than it was in the hot sellers market of years gome by, as seen above, but fewer than we saw in Hunterdon County even last fall. 

Autumn is usually the second best time to market your home (the two worst times are in the snows of winter and sands of summer). The second graph shows how still the market was last fall.  Does it also portend a better September-November selling period than last year?  Short of another jump in inventory index, maybe yes. 

Here’s a breakout of the number of homes that went under contract and the number actually on the market in Hunterdon each month (below).

Bottom line, it could be worse.  We know that because it was - recently.  

OK, how to make yours one of those homes placed under contract?

  Please call or email me 

     Don Sherblom

  (908) 303-8130 for a free consultation!

Put my 12 years of local real estate experience and

the power of RE/MAX behind your home sale! 

Invite me into your home.  I promise you’ll get personal service and professional results!